The Perils of Prediction Markets

I feel about prediction markets the way I feel about drugs—they’re probably not a good idea. Prediction markets, which allow people to wager on real-world events such as elections and flight delays with a few clicks, are just the latest example of people being taught to view every uncertain outcome as an opportunity to place a bet.

And they can be addictive, especially for young people chasing an instant rush. It’s the latest version of the well-known “lottery effect.” Gamblers play the what if game, trading short-term thrills at the expense of long-term consequences.

Everyday people are likely to lose out. Betting on outcomes through prediction markets and the novel—and opaque—investment products linked to them is worse than a zero-sum game; your expected return is negative. It’s akin to going to Las Vegas and betting against the house.

Not only are the odds stacked against you, there are insiders tilting the scales. You’re also often up against professionals with vast research resources, and there’s little transparency to ensure a level playing field. This system really is rigged.

And the people most likely to lose out are the ones who would benefit from a genuine, long-term investing mindset.

A recent Betterment investor survey found that more than a quarter of Gen Z respondents treat sports betting as a deliberate part of their long-term strategy, while more than half have at least once redirected money to sports betting that they otherwise would have invested. Demand for betting-like products could spread more broadly, as the Securities and Exchange Commission is taking a hard look at permitting prediction-market exchange-traded funds.

The combined monthly global trading volume on the largest providers of these markets jumped from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to $23.8 billion in April 2026, according to the Pew Research Center. That’s about $10 billion more a month than was wagered through legal sportsbooks in the US last year.

Now, I’m not opposed to having a little fun here and there. In fact, when my daughter turned 21, I took her to Las Vegas, where the odds are most definitely stacked against you. This was not a high-roller affair—we were at the $5 table, my stack of chips was about the height of a Hershey’s Kiss and after a few hours, I’d lost my entire $600 bankroll. But that was money I was willing to lose and knew I probably would. It wasn’t money I was counting on for the future.

Our cultural emphasis on immediacy has helped glorify a mythology of overnight prosperity. But if people had a better understanding of how true investing actually works, they might be better able to avoid speculation and adopt a more enduring path toward long-term wealth.

Compare prediction markets with public markets, where buyers and sellers come together to trade. Each side must feel they got a satisfactory price, at least in voluntary transactions, or they don’t trade. If a market has adequate transparency and investor protections, trading volume, disclosure of risks, and a reasonable market mechanism, then over time, we should expect prices to be fair.

If prices are fair, then no individual investor should expect to beat the market. This means everyone—insiders, outsiders, and everyone in between—has a fair shot at profiting from it. Someone else does not have to lose for you to win because of the value being created through economic progress. Anyone can benefit from the market’s long-term growth, which has resulted in 10% annualized US stock market returns for a century.

There have always been people selling investors on promises rather than science. Fifty years ago, it was stockbrokers telling people what to buy and sell to get rich quick. It took a revolution in financial data to demonstrate that the average stock picker did not add any value. And it took another couple of generations to convince the public that they were better off with a low-cost, diversified portfolio than putting all their savings into Sears or Kodak.

This advancement in financial knowledge gave people the confidence that if they adopted the right perspective—that true investing is a long-term endeavor supported by discipline and tuning out the day-to-day noise—they could reach their financial goals.

The rise of gambling masquerading as investing undercuts those lessons. Rather than betting on the false promise offered by prediction markets, investors are better off owning the genuine progress fueled by people and companies working to solve real problems. You don’t need to predict the future to benefit from it.

Stay calm, stay invested, and let markets work for you.

David

A version of this article first appeared in the Financial Times.